Brian M Downing and the world at war. Timely, thoughtful, and nonpartisan analysis of military matters. @BrianMDowning1.
Brian M Downing An important development in the Libyan conflict took place this week. Russia withdrew its Wagner mercenaries from the western region and deployed fighter jets to the east. The interpretation here is that Putin and Erdogan have struck a bargain: the west remains under the Tripoli government under Read More …
Brian M Downing Libya is divided between a western region based in Tripoli and an east based in Benghazi. Each side has considerable foreign support – diplomatic and military. Last year the warlord of eastern Libya, Khalifa Haftar, launched an offensive to take the western capital, Tripoli. The capital’s defenders, Read More …
Brian M Downing Oil and power The international interest in Libya is of course mainly about oil, but not simply for the commodity on the world market. Oil and gas can be used to expand power. Russia uses its hydrocarbons to gain influence in Europe and corral former SSRs that Read More …
Brian M Downing The optimism of 2011’s Arab Spring gave way long ago to civil war, jihadism, and disintegration. When Qaddafi met his end in a ditch, Libya became especially chaotic. The colonel governed through personal power and subservient local councils. When he went, the councils vanished and the country Read More …
Brian M Downing The Arab Spring was so promising back in 2011. In Libya, Qaddafi was overthrown and killed by a coalition of popular militias. People power in the Maghreb. A representative government was sure to follow, once all those militias disbanded and their leaders formed a transitional government. Didn’t Read More …
Brian M Downing Israel and Russia have a sound working relationship. Antisemitism has permeated Russia for centuries. The Soviet Union restricted Jewish emigration for many years and only relented after protracted US pressure. Nonetheless, many Israelis retain fondness for their former country and respect Russia for liberating Nazi camps, including Read More …
Brian M Downing Russia has made important gains in the Muslim world. It has built up its military position in Syria, adding an airfield at Latakia and showing its willingness to back an ally with exceptional force. Iran is more solidly in Moscow’s camp than ever. And longtime enemy Turkey has Read More …
The US wades into Libya Brian M Downing The West is stepping up its activity in the Libyan civil war. Fearing that ISIL is establishing a statelet, the West is about to provide arms and more advisers to the forces backing the Government of National Accord. NATO troops and airpower Read More …