Brian M Downing
The Trump administration and its Saudi allies were relieved as US interest in the Khashoggi assassination receded. The passage of time and midterm elections saw to that. Riyadh, Washington, and Jerusalem breathed easier as their hardline Iran policy seemed back on track.
The issue returned to the fore late last week when CIA personnel released an official finding, with “high confidence”: Mohammad bin Salman ordered Khashoggi’s murder. This of course contradicts the (most recent) position of the House of Saud which the Trump administration supported. What’s afoot?
The leak
The report was given to the Washington Post and other news outlets Friday night. The administration hadn’t authorized the release and more importantly hadn’t been apprised of the findings beforehand. A classic Washington leak.
The administration must be furious, not only for the leak but for the embarrassment and turmoil it brings. It’s unclear who at Langley authorized the release. Current CIA head Gina Haspel is a recent Trump appointee and unlikely to cause embarrassment. Responsibility probably rests at a somewhat lower level at Langley.
The leak was intended to cause trouble with the administration’s foreign policy, more so in security matters than in economic ones such as the trade war with China. Intelligence people play politics from time to time. A 2008 National Intelligence Estimate found, with high confidence, that Iran’s nuclear program was not the danger the administration claimed. Intelligence officials recalled seeing their analyses on Iraq’s WMDs distorted by administration hawks eager for Gulf War Two and wanted to make another conflict more difficult.
The administration and the company
Reasons for the leak are unclear, though they may become known as the responsible persons are rooted out. Deep mistrust between the president and security bureaus is clear.
The president disparaged the intelligence community’s assessment of Russian meddling in the 2016 elections, at least initially. The immediate backtracking demonstrated an erratic and irresponsible nature.
The outcome of the Mueller probe will be known soon, one way or another. Nonetheless, it’s certain that the president’s future security adviser Michael Flynn, future Attorney General Jeff Sessions, son Donald Trump, Jr, and and son-in-law (and Middle East policymaker) Jared Kushner all met with Russian officials. The meetings are puzzling, disconcerting, and call into question the reasoning behind policies toward Russia.
The president’s criticism of NATO members’ inadequate defense spending resonates with many opinions in and out of security bureaus. Defense chief Gates publicly rebuked NATO allies after the US had to carry the load in the Libyan campaign of 2011. However, the president goes beyond this and questions the alliance’s usefulness, causing dismay in European capitals and Washington as well.
Officials charged with longterm strategic planning may have doubts about Saudi Arabia’s future. In one scenario, the kingdom implodes from domestic opposition and is no longer a viablee partner. Furthermore, the princes expect US troops to help suppress rebellion and keep them on the throne. (They already expect the US to bring down Iran for them.)
Alternately, the kingdom could emerge as a dominant regional power, with hegemony over several Islamic countries and the armies of Egypt and Pakistan. The latter of course has nuclear weapons – the product of Saudi funding.
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The president’s base will view opposition from CIA and other security bureaus as further proof of a deep-state cabal at work. Opposition, however, stretches across the political spectrum. Liberal EPA and OSHA bureaucrats oppose the president but so do CIA, State, and FBI counterparts. The president’s problem isn’t the deep state, it’s the deep mistrust. Nonetheless, he may offer the predictable explanation to the base, to his administration’s benefit but not the nation’s.
©2018 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to Susan Ganosellis.