Candidate Trump ran on standing up to China, chiefly on trade. New agreements have been hammered out that call for more Chinese purchases of US goods but it remains to be seen if Beijing will live up to them. As accusations fly and tensions increase amid the pandemic, Beijing has more reason to renege.
President Trump planned to run this year on low unemployment and sustained growth. The pandemic of course has damaged the world economy and shifted focus onto the disease – and China.
The China problem
The campaign can point out that China’s rise in the world endangers our economy, power prestige, and longstanding values. The message can be amplified by an array of sympathetic media. China’s rise comes at our expense.
China muscles out US businesses, as in Kazakstan and Angola where US oil firms were suddenly shown the door and Chinese ones, unencumbered by restrictions on bribery, took over. Markets are closed off to the US and access to raw materials endangered. American technology is stolen or bought from less than honorable businessmen through the cash nexus.
China is seeking to replace American hegemony from East Asia to the Persian Gulf. To that end it is claiming territorial waters and building artificial islands – both in violation of international law. Americans have long prided themselves on their power prestige and world standing since Lee handed his sword to Grant, the Rough Riders rode up San Juan Hill, and the marines raised the flag over Suribachi. Power prestige and world standing are in danger.
The Trump campaign has made posted criticism of China’s threat to democracy in Hong Kong and its internment and scattering of millions of Uighur from Muslim regions. Large portions of Central Asia, Africa, and Latin America are being integrated into Beijing’s co-prosperity sphere. Most of the member states are run by ruthless dictators.
The call for human rights might not ring true in many parts of the world but the issue at hand is its importance to the American electorate.
The audience
The campaign’s rhetoric will of course find a ready audience in the president’s base. Career military personnel and the rank and file voted for Trump in big numbers. However, recent polling shows the support dropping off from the low 60s to about 40, perhaps owing to his failure to end wars as promised and the rude dismissals of Generals Mattis, Kelly, and McMaster. The China issue may get many back on board.
The message can be tailored to resonate with independents, that vast pool of non-ideological voters, many of whom have been leaning against Trump according to recent polls. Anti-China rhetoric will play well on issues of job security patriotism. The effort could be presented as a vital national effort, akin to WW2, the Cold War, the space race, and the evil empire of the Reagan years.
The Democratic response
Countering the GOP’s position might be difficult. The Democrats must avoid sounding defensive of Chinese authoritarianism and its expanding co-prosperity sphere. Further, they must avoid dismissing the concerns of blue-collar voters they wish to draw back into their camp.
The president’s effort may be criticized for racist tinges. He is certainly capable of making a slew of clumsy off-hand accusations and quips. However, the president could counter with testimony from Hong Kongers, Taiwanese, Japanese, Koreans, Vietnamese, and Uighur who are deeply worried by China’s ascent.
The Democrats may claim the president is temperamentally predisposed to belligerent and confrontational actions. The US, they will argue, should seek to negotiate with China and work together with it, all the more so now with the world economy in its worst shape since just before WW2.
© 2020 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to Susan Ganosellis.