Brian M Downing
Part one argued that Netanyahu’s crackdown on Palestinians is endangering his country’s security arrangements with Arab allies, especially Saudi Arabia and the Emirates. He’s also endangering Israel’s position in the world, weakening US support, and gravely weakening his own country’s cohesion. He’s doing more damage to Israel than he can realize.
World opinion
The current round of fighting is taking place in a global political climate quite different from previous ones. Some years have more political engagement than others. 1968 saw jarring protests, riots, assassinations, and fighting stretching from Chicago to Paris, Prague to Hue.
Recent years have seen tremendous activism owing to population pressures, climate change, doddering autocrats, and harsh repression. Protests, many of them quite violent, are underway in Chile, Colombia, Belarus, Russia, Iraq, and Myanmar. Protests would take place in other countries if only they could.
Demonstrators are aware of a global pattern and feel a sense of community with other movements. There’s an emotional defense pact: an attack on one involves them all. Allegations of Israeli torture and incautious use of airpower are getting more notice and eliciting more revulsion. The 1968 slogan about the whole world watching is more true today.
Opposition will probably take the form of stronger calls for sanctions on Israel, a barrage of critical speeches and editorials, and unfortunately a spike in antisemitic acts. Netanyahu should know this.
US opinion
Criticism has long been more muted in the US, even though its military aid plays a role in the conflict. A handful of members of Congress have been critical, which is new but it won’t coalesce into a meaningful response. The US will not support sanctions or a vote of condemnation – not in Congress, not in the UN.
There’s been some change among Jewish Americans, most of whom are firmly liberal. They were once reflexively supportive of Israel. in war and peace. and often enough joined with politicians and committees to condemn criticism, often with claims of antisemitism.
Netanyahu has introduced circumspection in the US. He is supported by religious parties with traditional views of women’s places in the family and society. His policies are tinged with racial superiority. He was condescending toward Obama and enthusiastic toward Trump. He has dismissed critical coverage as fake news and attempted to make much criticism illegal. Longer memories know he incited his base against a rival during a divisive election. A settler shot Yitzhak Rabin dead.
Many Americans see IDF repression in Jerusalem and Gaza as akin to police measures in Minneapolis and Chicago. Ultra-nationalist bands beating Arabs and marking their homes for further action are acts that even Proud Boys would hesitate to carry out for now.
Netanyahu’s will and destiny
The present policy is aimed at more than terminating Hamas leaders and destroying its arms caches. It’s aimed at convincing Palestinians to give up the fight – submit or emigrate. Longer term he wants to build a majority of religious-nationalist supporters with a commanding majority that will make the center and left permanent minority parties.
However, the ongoing war is threatening to weaken support in the US, coalesce global economic and diplomatic opposition, and most importantly undermine alignments with Saudi Arabia and the Emirates.
At home he is gravely deepening fissures between his religious-nationalist base and secular Israelis. He is also antagonizing Israeli Arabs, a group distinct from Palestinians. They are a forgotten segment of the country who’ve been citizens since Israel’s inception in 1948. They serve in the military and hold seats in the Knesset. They are now fearful of the country’s march to religious-nationalist dominance with all the prejudice and intolerance that entails.
Netanyahu is dividing Israel to an extent once thought unthinkable. A prominent figure recently noted, “If a divided society goes beyond a certain point, you can end up, in extreme circumstances, with phenomena like civil war. To my regret, the distance [until we reach that point] is shrinking.” (Times of Israel, 30 August 2016) It was not a firebrand pol; it was Tamir Pardo, a special forces officer and former Mossad chief. Clashes are underway.
Netanyahu is responsible for grievous damage to his country’s image, national cohesion, and strategic alliances. He may be too infused with a sense of personal and national destiny to realize it.
© 2020 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to Susan Ganosellis.