The potential for Russian escalation in Syria
Brian M Downing
Vladimir Putin’s intervention in Syria has thus far been cautious. Russian air support allowed Syrian and allied ground forces to regain territory around Damascus and Aleppo. When the Syrian president boasted of reconquering all of Syria, and as the ineffectiveness of the ground forces became clear, Putin expressed displeasure by withdrawing a portion of the aircraft he deployed to the Latakia airfield. Putin’s goals would be confined to establishing a Shia rump state; he was not going to let Syria become another Afghanistan.
Things have changed on the ground – and likely in Putin’s assessment of the geopolitical environment as well. The ambitious Russian leader may now see new opportunities and want to pursue broader goals that will prolong the war. More than one Kremlin ruler has sought glory and aggrandizement in war, and Putin wants to place himself in his country’s pantheon of great leaders.
The view from the Kremlin
The stalemate of the last year has given way to steady though not sweeping gains by Damascus’s ground forces. This isn’t because the ground forces have improved; it’s because of new bombing tactics. Russian and Syrian aircraft now attack rebel-held urban areas with no regard for civilian casualties. The strikes are pitiless, inhumane, and highly effective: the urban areas are typically abandoned, allowing for relatively costless Syrian advances. The tactic can, and likely will, be used on other rebel-held positions.
Putin discerns the US’s reluctance to counter his tactics. The US will not enforce an aircap, even though it could destroy every Russian and Syrian aircraft in a matter of weeks. Russian responses would be fierce and further mire the US in a situation it doesn’t want to be. Nor will the US provide the rebels with Maenads as their spread into other countries is too worrisome.
Russia is demonstrating willingness to use ruthless force to aid embattled allies – something it was unable to do for Serbia and Libya, but can do now. The US has shown its reluctance to help allies in Egypt and now in Syria. This is clear to many countries, especially Saudi Arabia which may face jarring uprisings in coming years. This may make Riyadh continue to move closer to Moscow, with arms purchases and diplomatic efforts.
Voices of caution
Russian generals came of age as junior officers in the unforgiving mountains and plains of Afghanistan. They will counsel against escalation and needless prolonging of the Syrian war, despite the vision of their president.
Tempting though embarrassing the US and its allies will be, there are other compelling goals in the region. Chief among them is rapprochement with Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies. Putin angered them by intervening decisively in the Syrian conflict. Promising cooperation and arms sales, both at the expense of the US, went on hold.
Prolonging the war and crushing Sunni forces will break off closer ties with the Sunnis. Better to hold back from bolder efforts in Syria and shift, if awkwardly, from relentless airstrikes to hard-nosed negotiations, and then to cooperating with the Sunni princes in the formation of Sunni statelets in eastern Syria. Russia will emerge stronger in the Middle East and the US will come out far weaker, in war and peace.
Copyright 2016 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who has written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs.