Brian M Downing
The US is pulling out of three bases in Iraq, though most will be repositioned on other bases. This comes after an upswing in rocket fire from Iranian-backed militias. US reprisals have had no deterrent effect. The move might be a preliminary stage of a withdrawal intended to avoid the embarrassment of being ordered out.
More likely it hopes to reduce casualties by withdrawing from more exposed positions. However, the president is erratic and has often promised to end pointless wars, especially during election campaigns.
What would happen if we did pullout? Nothing good is likely. Three situations can be considered.
Greater stability
Departure could ease a good deal of the public turmoil, large parts of which have shifted from anti-Iran to anti-US stances. This is in large part due to American retaliatory strikes on Iraqi militias and the killing of IRGC commander Soleimani. In the view of large parts of the public the US is using their country, without their government’s consent, as a base of operations in the region – perhaps a permanent one.
Ordering the US out would give the government the appearance of acting in the interest of the nation for once, and boost its popularity. Political machinery is churning toward giving that order. Indeed, that might be the only way to form a viable coalition.
Greater popularity and legitimacy would be short-lived. The political system has scores of rivalrous parties, numerous ambitious leaders, deep sectarian-ethnic hatreds, and a large, passionate youth population. The government and the frail coalition its based on would sooner or layer be overwhelmed by the issues of electricity, poverty, sectarian balances,and opportunity.
Continued paralysis in Baghdad
If improved popularity and legitimacy prove to be fleeting, no more than a minor bump lasting a few months at most, then turmoil will persist and government will be no more functional than it is today. This would be unwelcome as the costly US effort to implant democracy in the Middle East would come to a bitter end.
But US troops are not helping with stability today, quite the opposite. In any case they cannot remain in-country for years to come in search of a solution to an unsolvable problem. Three possibilities are likely.
There could be disintegration into a chaotic region of warring militias and tribal groupings – Hobbesistan on the Tigris and Euphrates. It has happened in Libya, it went on in Syria for years, it could happen to Iraq.
Foreign interventions would likely ensue, most likely by Iran and Saudi Arabia. This could take the form of overt military invasion or diplomatic pressure and financial incentives to face realties and partition of the country along sectarian and ethnic lines.
A resurgent ISIL
ISIL has an underground presence in many Sunni districts. An American departure would give the jihadis greater ability to communicate and conduct bombings and assassinations. One of their goals would of course be to aggravate sectarian hatreds and kill competent military leaders. The ensuing chaos might, in ISIL’s estimation, allow it to reestablish control a large expanse of land.
This is unlikely. Elite army formations, scores of militias, and Kurdish troops can prevent that. However, this forces will lack the resolve they had when US troops serve alongside them and gave tactical advise. ISIL will recognize this.
The view here has been that US forces did too much in the ISIL war. They trained and advised elite units but that proved to be insufficient to make headway. American artillery units, logistical teams, and medical personnel had to be brought in. Iraqi troops then did not carry as much of the burden as they could have. Instead, most battalions remained unprofessional, untested, and unqualified.
© 2020 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to Susan Ganosellis.