I long for the vanished gardens of Cordoba. However, before the gardens must come the fighting.
Prince Feisal, in Lawrence of Arabia
Brian M Downing
The United States and Saudi Arabia have been aligned since President Roosevelt and King Abdul Aziz parleyed aboard a US warship near the end of World War Two. Washington agreed to defend the kingdom in exchange for preeminence in its burgeoning oil industry. The US coveted Saudi oil just then. It had expended great quantities of its own in the world war and wanted to reduce production. Europe would rebuild with and rely on Middle Eastern crude.
The US of course became a net importer in the mid-50s as the public was moving to suburbs and buying cars. The oil hikes of 1973 strained the relationship and brought worrisome trade deficits. The US convinced Saudi Arabia, Iran, and other oil-producing states to build large armies – equipped chiefly with American jets, ships, and arms. It wasn’t a hard sell. The checks rolled in, the weaponry shipped out, and trade deficits went down.
Today, the US buys relatively little oil from the Saudis, but they nonetheless buy immense amounts of weapons from us. All the more so as tensions with Iran have grown. The Saudis and their Sunni allies do so less to build strong armies than to gain influence in Washington’s security bureaus. Hence the 1991 Gulf War and ongoing missions in Syria and Yemen.
The partnership is showing weaknesses and they will worsen. Moscow, once loathed in Riyadh for its atheism and invasion of Afghanistan, is cozying up to Saudi princes. It wants to replace the US’s privileged position in the Sunni arms trade and become ascendant in the Gulf. Saudi Arabia will see more and more in common with Russia in coming years.
The crown prince
Mohammad bin Salman is an ambitious and ruthless ruler. His father will die in a few years or less, leaving the kingdom in MBS’s hands for perhaps sixty-five years or more. His privileged upbringing, family heritage, and Wahhabi creed instilled a sense of mission. He’s determined to put centuries of Arab weakness and foreign interference behind and bring lasting unity and greatness.
Abbasids, Fatimids, and Ottomans built mighty empires but they fell apart, usually because of financial weaknesses and rebellious vassals. MBS envisions a more stable form of Arab power. He is building a popular base by building mosques and schools and by giving away food to the needy.
His industrialization program aims to diversify the kingdom’s economy and integrate the Islamic world into a co-prosperity union. What Rome was to the ancient Mediterranean, Riyadh plans to become for the expanse from Morocco to the eastern Gulf area and beyond.
Authoritarian rulers in Bahrain and Egypt are beholden to Riyadh for help in suppressing popular protests. The Sudan and Algeria are looking for similar help now. The armies of Egypt, Pakistan, and to some extent Lebanon benefit from Saudi largesse. Warlord Khalifa Haftar has Saudi backing for his effort to control all Libya, including the weak democracy centered in Tripoli. Democracies in Tunisia and Jordan may be in MBS’s sights in coming years.
Armies from the Maghreb to South Asia are important parts of the kingdom’s growing Islamic Military Counter Terrorism Coalition (IMCTC). The coalition purports to focus on terrorism but its actual objective is Iran’s downfall and the kingdom’s ascendance.
Mohammad bin Salman is garnering Russian help. Riyadh and Moscow both resent American hegemony and are eager to undermine it. Russian arms are supplanting western ones in Sunni arsenals. Russia and Saudi Arabia cooperate to bolster oil prices. Russian troops and contractors help authoritarian regimes repress protest movements. In Libya, Russia and Saudi Arabia back warlord Haftar’s campaign. Both countries have long histories of opposing Israel and Judaism itself.
Rising powers want to alter exuding power relations. Israel will be threatened and the US will always act to protect it. A decisive moment in the region’s geopolitics is coming as Saudi Arabia comes to question its partnership with the US.
© 2019 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to Susan Ganosellis.