Brian M Downing and the world at war. Timely, thoughtful, and nonpartisan analysis of military matters. @BrianMDowning1.
Brian M Downing Once Aleppo is completely taken and reasonably secure, Assad and Putin will turn their attention to the last rebel city in the west, Idlib. Their tactics of intensive airstrikes followed by ground assaults are effective, if inhumane. The rebels have no protection from Russian aircraft. Their foreign Read More …
Negotiation and escalation in the Syrian civil war after Aleppo Brian M Downing The war in Syria is entering its sixth year. Various rebel groups, backed by Sunni powers, had the upper hand until Hisbollah, Iran, and Russia intervened on the government side. Over the last year government forces developed a tactic Read More …
Pragmatism and ideology in President Trump’s foreign policy Brian M Downing Americans are wondering just what the Trump presidency will bring. So are people around the world – the poor of Central America, leaders of ISIL and al Qaeda, European publics and leaders, and the elites of China and Russia. Read More …
The coming ISIL dispersal – Iraq and Syria Brian M Downing In coming weeks, or months, ISIL’s prestigious holdings, Mosul and Raqqa, will have been retaken. ISIL will have only a handful of smaller towns and expanses of land – most of it wasteland. Several thousand ISIL fighters are in Read More …
Escalation and attrition in the battle for Aleppo Brian M Downing A major battle for Aleppo has been coming for many months, delayed by a short-lived ceasefire and preliminary negotiations. There will not be a lasting ceasefire or meaningful talks until the fate of Syria’s once largest city, now in ruins, Read More …
Can the US and Russia cooperate in Syria? Brian M Downing Secretary of State Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov have met several times in recent weeks, giving rise to talk of the two powers cooperating in easing the war in Syria. Two issues are being discussed: cooperating in attacking Read More …
Only a few years ago the US was confident it had left behind combat operations in the Middle East. It’s back, albeit reluctantly. The US has bolstered its training mission in Iraq and begun air support missions. To the west, in Syria, the US failed to build a rebel force Read More …
President Putin has raised the Russian profile in Syria. He has sent in new armored vehicles, deployed advisers alongside government troops, and ordered work on a housing compound for several hundred more troops – the latter move setting off speculation about the scope and intent of the Read More …
Brian M Downing The Iranian nuclear talks ended without agreement, except to extend the deadline on negotiations until next July. Over the next few months, world events may change the positions of the powers involved. The pause also offers time to better understand each power’s viewpoint. Each country, including Iran, Read More …
Brian M Downing The Islamic State’s fearsome offensive in northern and central Iraq has stalled owing to indigenous ground troops and western airpower. In some places, IS has been forced to retreat, beginning a new phase in its effort to bring unification to Muslims of the world, whether they want Read More …