Outcome scenarios in the sectarian wars: protracted stalemate, part one

Brian M Downing  Sectarian conflict, chiefly between Saudi Arabia and Iran, has been underway for decades. Based at least as much on religious hatred as on national security, it reached intense levels with the Iran-Iraq War of the 80s which took hundreds of thousands of lives. Afterward, animosities lessened but Read More …

Jerusalem, Gaza, and stability in the anti-Iran Entente

Brian M Downing  This week the US opened its embassy in Jerusalem, moving it from Tel Aviv as President Trump promised. The relocation signaled the president’s disinterest in a two-state solution and support for the Israeli Right’s assimilation of the West Bank. Along the Gaza Strip in the west, Palestinian Read More …

Netanyahu drives a wedge between Moscow and Tehran

Brian M Downing  Critical events related to Middle Eastern conflicts took place last week. Iran apparently fired missiles into the Golan Heights and Israel struck back on numerous Iranian positions in Syria. The US announced it’s leaving the JCPOA and new sanctions on the Islamic Republic are pending. Iran responded Read More …

Escalation and attrition in the Levant

Brian M Downing  Amid the battles and atrocities of the Syrian civil war have been scores of Israeli airstrikes on Syrian, Iranian, and Hisbollah positions. The strikes picked up in February when an Iranian drone crossed into Israeli airspace and the IDF retaliated on Syrian air defenses. This week Iran Read More …

Iran, the US, and Afghanistan in the sectarian conflict

Brian M Downing  Sectarian antagonisms have existed in the Islamic world for centuries. They became more prominent with the Iranian Revolution (1979) and worsened when the US defeated a Sunni state in Iraq and opened the way for Shia rule. Since then, two international coalitions have formed: Shia Iran, Syria, Read More …

The Entente sets its sights on Iran – democracy or disintegration?

Brian M Downing  Candidate Trump made it clear that he opposed the Iran nuclear treaty, or JCPOA, and would be much firmer with Iran than President Obama had been or a President Hillary Clinton would be. President Trump has solidified ties with the Israeli Right and Sunni princes, making tough Read More …

Another fighting season arrives in Afghanistan

Brian M Downing  The war in Afghanistan goes on and warmer weather brings a new Taliban campaign. The Islamist group was driven from most of the country in 2001-02 but found safe haven in Pakistan and reconstituted itself as an insurgency. Irremediable corruption in Afghan government and society has helped Read More …

Will the young prince lead his troops into Syria?

Brian M Downing  The US and Britain, along with Kurdish-Arab SDF allies, have established themselves in eastern Syria. Washington and Riyadh are discussing a contingent from Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states. President Trump recently said the US would soon be out of Syria. The statement has been dialed back Read More …

Missile strikes and deterrence in the Levant

Brian M Downing  The US has twice fired missiles into Syria in retaliation for using chemical weapons. A year ago, a unilateral US barrage of 59 ship-launched cruise missiles struck a military airbase. Last Friday, the US, Britain, and France fired twice that number, from both ships and aircraft, into Read More …