Notes on the Israeli strike on Syria – and Iran

Brian M Downing  The position here is that Israeli PM Netanyahu should retaliate against Syria for its use of chemical weapons. (“Why is Netanyahu looking on?” March 14 2018.) In addition to upholding norms, it would weaken an enemy that’s reconstituting itself, at least partially, from the fragmentation brought on by Read More …

Mohammad bin Salman and the future of Saudi Arabia

Brian M Downing  Warrior-king Abdul Aziz ibn Saud gathered tribal forces on the Arabian Peninsula after World War One and established a personal Kingdom in 1932. Since his death in 1953, Saudi Arabia has been ruled by his sons – actually by a clique within his numerous offspring. In recent Read More …

The Don’s new consigliere and Iran

Brian M Downing Last spring, as the Trump administration took its first steps on the world stage, many were relieved to see relatively cautious figures in top foreign policy slots. This was especially so after Sec of State Rex Tillerson offered cautious words regarding North Korea, Qatar, and Iran that Read More …

The prince and president talk arms – and Sunnistan

Brian M Downing  Mohammed bin Salman, heir apparent and de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, is in Washington this week. Discussions will bear on the geopolitics of the Middle East and the political economy of the United States. The prince brought his checkbook. High on the agenda is dealing with Read More …

Why is Netanyahu looking on?

Brian  M Downing  The Syrian war drags on, and so do the atrocities. Rebel fighters are not armies of right and virtue by any means but that cannot be used to look past the government side’s deliberate and systematic attacks on civilians. Syrian and Russian aircraft have incorporated heavy bombing Read More …

The Syrian war and international norms

Brian M Downing The Syrian civil war is in its eighth year. The government presently has the upper hand. It’s taken back a good deal of territory and all major cities save one, Idlib. That city is now under attack by Russian and Syrian aircraft in preparation for a ground Read More …

Is Putin increasing the stakes in Syria?

Brian M Downing  Russian leader Vladimir Putin recently deployed more fighter aircraft to the Latakia airbase in western Syria –  two SU-57s. The move comes close on the heels of two setbacks  – Israel’s punishing strike on Syria’s Russian-made and much ballyhooed air defense system, and the US-SDF blunting of Read More …

Opportunity and entrenchment in the Syrian-Turkish clash

Brian M Downing  Turkey sat on the sidelines during most of the Syrian Civil War. President Erdogan looked on as ISIL mauled the Kurds of Syria, whom he deems supportive of Kurdish militants in his country’s southeast. To his dismay but to the world’s delight, the Kurds, with American help, Read More …

The emerging struggle for the Persian Gulf, Part I

Brian M Downing  The United States has naval and air force bases across the Gulf – in Kuwait, the Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman, and to an uncertain extent, Saudi Arabia. Iran was once a staunch US ally but after the Shah’s downfall and failure at rapprochement, it’s now firmly aligned Read More …

Costs and benefits of the Iran stance

Brian M Downing Candidate Trump made plain his opposition to the 2015 JCPOA, better known as the Iran nuclear deal. In recent weeks President Trump was on the path toward decertification, stiffer sanctions, and bolder confrontation. However, he faced opposition from his own cabinet and even from retired Israeli generals Read More …