Brian M Downing
Since its remarkable offensive of 2014, ISIL has been steadily worn down by Kurdish and Arab forces in Syria and by special forces and militias in Iraq. Both campaigns relied heavily on American support. ISIL retains positions in eastern Syria and western Iraq and was able to mount a significant attack last week on a Syrian garrison near Deir Azzour.
ISIL and its kindred outfit, al Qaeda, nonetheless have franchises in the Maghreb, Yemen, Somalia, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and the ‘Stans of Central Asia. Furthermore, they inspire lone wolves throughout the Islamic world, in housing projects of Europe, and even in the Muslim middle classes of North America.
In most Islamic countries 50% or more of the population is under the age of 25. While this demographic bulge presents economic advantages in developing countries, it presents problems for stability too, especially where there are limited opportunities and oligarchic rulers. How might the youth cohorts react to ISIL’s loss of territory, the Palestinian situation, the Sunni-Shia conflict, and the rise of the European Right?
ISIL in defeat
The string of losses from Kobane to Mosul and Reqqa might not damage ISIL’s ability to inspire and recruit. Defeat can dim the attraction of a cause but loss can be cast in appealing hues. The Wehrmacht’s cohesion and morale remained high well after Stalingrad and the Ardennes and even after allied armies were deep inside the Reich.
Outsiders might consider ISIL a spent force that could not stand up to superior numbers and airpower. Many in the youth cohort nevertheless will view the defeat through the lens of romantic notions of war, Islamist lore, and a yearning to exact revenge against oppressors. They will see ISIL as a visionary force that caused corrupt rulers to tremble and beg the US to keep them on their thrones. It would not be the oddest interpretation of events that history has known. And their dreams of vengeance resonate with ISIL’s dark visions and horrific deeds.
ISIL fighters are trying to make their way home to carry on the cause. Getting back into Russia and the Kingdom will be difficult, though some will succeed and find support. They will seek vengeance for Russia’s airstrikes in support of Assad and for Saudi Arabia’s collaboration with the US.
Some ISIL fighters are ensconcing themselves in Afghanistan, part of the region called Khorasan in apocalyptic tracts. From there they will build support in the ‘Stans, then in the Islamic redoubts of Russia.
The demise of the two-state solution
Palestinians began modern terrorism some 50 years ago and successfully presented their cause to the world. Since then, they’ve been put off and outmaneuvered by Israeli governments and abandoned by the Sunni states that once championed them.
Shin Bet estimates that several dozen Palestinians have traveled to Syria to join rebel groups and learn violent methods. Getting out of Israel and entering Syria is easier than getting back in. Israeli border security is tight and far more mindful of who comes in than who goes out. Palestinian jihadis might find better opportunities in the Sunni states which have abandoned them.
Several Shin Bet chiefs have warned that they’ve kept a lid on terrorism with the assistance of Palestinian leaders. They helped because they believed the Israeli government would eventually establish a Palestinian state.
The Sunni-Shia conflict
Sectarian hatred is higher now than in centuries and related wars flare across the Middle East. Each side may use religious minorities inside the other’s territory to engage in insurgency and terrorism. Iran has Sunni populations in its northwest and southeast and Saudi Arabia has a Shia population in its Eastern Province.
Terrorism could be based not on foreign dynamics but wholly on local grievances. The Shia of Saudi Arabia are increasingly looked down upon and oppressed, which may lead to spontaneous attacks. The Shias are concentrated in the east, where most of the oil is.
Sectarian wars may stimulate terrorism only indirectly related to the confrontation. Many young people will see the conflict stemming from foreign manipulation – another effort by outsiders to weaken and humiliate the Islamic world.
Europe and its resurgent Right
Western Europe has long had Muslim populations. West Germany let in Turks and Kurds to fill manpower needs after World War Two. Britain and France gave entry to people from their former colonies. Numbers have increased with the turmoil from Algeria to Afghanistan and with a rising reservoir of people elsewhere who look for better opportunities.
The influx is fueling opposition from the Right which points to the risks of terrorism, engages in spirited protests, and in some cases attacks Muslims and their mosques. This will lead to more violent confrontations and more terrorist networks, especially in the projects and ghettoes of cities where criminal gangs want the legitimizing mantle of a political-religious cause.
Copyright 2018 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who has written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks to Susan Ganosellis.