Brian M Downing
Mentioning oil in world politics will immediately bring up the oil shock of 1973. The Saudis and other Gulf states showed their opposition to US support for Israel in the Yom Kippur War, when the US sent anti-tank missiles and helped the IDF defeat Arab air defenses. Americans were stunned to learn they depended on foreign countries for anything, let alone something as vital as oil.
Those with longer memories knew that the US had once been the largest oil producer and exporter in the world. American crude drove the international effort that defeated Imperial Japan and the Third Reich. Some knew that when the US embargoed oil to Japan in August of 1941, it meant Tokyo would go to war to seize oil in the Dutch East Indies.
The US is once again the largest producer and exports are soaring. We are positioned to use oil in foreign policy. China is buying, but mainly to ease trade imbalances, if only marginally, and win influence with US oil companies. A more interesting and portentous move may be coming in Eastern Europe.
Overture to Minsk
Last week, amid a deepening Cold War Two, Sec of State Pompeo visited President Lukashenko – once a communist boss, now a dictator. The former Soviet Republic (Byelorussia) has had a checkered history with Russia. There are two small Russian military bases in Belarus, the economies are closely tied, and both are authoritarian. Reintegration has been discussed.
Things are deteriorating though. Belarus is increasingly nationalistic and wary of Russian dominance, especially after Russia seized the Crimea and invaded the eastern Ukraine. Putin has raised the price of oil exports to Belarus and embargoed it altogether. Washington has taken note.
Pompeo offered to provide a hundred percent of Belarus’s oil and gas needs. The infrastructure will have to be put into place and Belarus may never rely completely on American energy, but the move is impressive.
Options for Minsk
How far will Lukashenko go? He’s already rejected Moscow’s bid to construct an air force base in his country and he may evict the Russians from radar and communication bases. This would open the door to cooperation between the Ukraine and Belarus. Each wants to limit Russian influence and respond to nationalist sentiments. We might see discussions between military staffs and perhaps joint exercises. Poland, Hungary, and the Baltic states may send observers.
The Ukraine is taking steps to enter NATO and Belarus may do the same one day – or at least threaten to do so. That will not sit well with Putin, to say the least, and he is undoubtedly scrambling to avoid this. Russian oil may flow more freely and at attractive prices, but a coup and even invasion cannot be ruled out.
Lukashenko might choose triangulation – playing off Washington and Moscow against each other to get maximum advantage from both. This is how Pakistan deals with the US and China, Iraq with the US and Iran, and Turkey with the US and Russia. Belarus may get discounted energy and weaponry from east and west.
Belarus is presenting a portentous opening for Washington diplomacy – a term not heard very often anymore. The US would benefit from even a partial break between Belarus and Russia. US oil export revenue would grow, pressure on the Ukraine would ease. Eastern Europe may turn to the US for oil and other things.
Russian oil revenue would fall, albeit not immensely. Putin’s self-crafted image of Defender of the Motherland and worthy successor to Peter the Great and Joseph Stalin will be tarnished in the eyes of the public and generals. His blunt actions in the Ukraine were initially cheered at home, but they alarmed much of Eastern Europe and brought resolve to oppose Russian influence, even in the once-stalwart ally of Belarus.
© 2020 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to Susan Ganosellis.