Brian M Downing and the world at war. Timely, thoughtful, and nonpartisan analysis of military matters. @BrianMDowning1.
Brian M Downing The view here has been that longstanding flaws and high casualties have rendered the Russian army incapable of meaningful offensive operations. Undaunted, Moscow has rallied the nation with WW2 analogies, drafted hundreds of thousands of men, and positioned them for attack. A winter offensive is underway, seeking Read More …
Brian M Downing The Ukraine war has gone badly for Russia. This isn’t widely admitted in Moscow, especially in the upper echelons. Russia’s response hasn’t been to reform its inept army, as did Prussia amid the Napoleonic wars and Japan against western imperialism. Putin et al aren’t looking to the Read More …
Brian M Downing Wars end in different ways, though some go on and on. After World War Two both Germany and Japan were completely defeated by victorious armies. Their armies were disbanded, leaders put on trial, and political systems fundamentally changed. That will not happen in the Russian war on Read More …
Brian M Downing Putin’s war is in the seventh month. Offensives fail. Casualties mount. Operations go nowhere. Depleted BTGs have to be combined to hold up effectiveness. Russia is facing a manpower problem. It has to find recruits, train and motivate them, and integrate them into units along the sprawling Read More …
Brian M Downing Tides turn in wars. Germans know that well. Russians should. Russia began the Ukraine war with seemingly unstoppable drives from north, south, and east. Ukraine pushed them Russia back from Kyiv and Kharkiv. Russia began its eastern offensive and pushed into Luhansk. A decisive breakthrough loomed Read More …
Brian M Downing Ties between Moscow and Damascus go back to the early Cold War. The Soviet Union sought to expand its power, and weaken the US’s, by backing secular states such as Syria and Egypt. It sold them military equipment, built infrastructure, and backed them in wars against Read More …
Brian M Downing European wars used to spread. The Dutch revolt against Spain (1568-1648) was fought in the Low Countries, Caribbean, Mediterranean, South America, and Southeast Asia. Henry Adams noted a skirmish between Britain and France in the American backwoods led to the Seven Years War, which devastated the continent. Read More …
Brian M Downing Army morale The troops that began the war were ill trained, badly led, and poorly equipped. They performed dismally. Hard experiences have made them more effective. They’re no longer taking casualties in static positions and stalled convoys. They’re taking enemy positions and meting out punishment. There are Read More …
Brian M Downing Putin invaded Ukraine five months ago, confident his forces would swiftly take Kyiv and overwhelm the rest of the country in short order. When the blitzkrieg failed, he shifted to a war of attrition. The conflict is almost certainly to be long and arduous. Putin believes that Read More …
Brian M Downing The war shifted three months ago from Kyiv to the Donbas. After months of fierce fighting there, the Russians made only limited progress, taking two cities and a handful of villages but enduring very high casualties along the way. The war is now shifting south to the Read More …