Brian M Downing and the world at war. Timely, thoughtful, and nonpartisan analysis of military matters. @BrianMDowning1.
Brian M Downing Ties between Moscow and Damascus go back to the early Cold War. The Soviet Union sought to expand its power, and weaken the US’s, by backing secular states such as Syria and Egypt. It sold them military equipment, built infrastructure, and backed them in wars against Read More …
Brian M Downing European wars used to spread. The Dutch revolt against Spain (1568-1648) was fought in the Low Countries, Caribbean, Mediterranean, South America, and Southeast Asia. Henry Adams noted a skirmish between Britain and France in the American backwoods led to the Seven Years War, which devastated the continent. Read More …
Brian M Downing Army morale The troops that began the war were ill trained, badly led, and poorly equipped. They performed dismally. Hard experiences have made them more effective. They’re no longer taking casualties in static positions and stalled convoys. They’re taking enemy positions and meting out punishment. There are Read More …
Brian M Downing Putin invaded Ukraine five months ago, confident his forces would swiftly take Kyiv and overwhelm the rest of the country in short order. When the blitzkrieg failed, he shifted to a war of attrition. The conflict is almost certainly to be long and arduous. Putin believes that Read More …
Brian M Downing The war shifted three months ago from Kyiv to the Donbas. After months of fierce fighting there, the Russians made only limited progress, taking two cities and a handful of villages but enduring very high casualties along the way. The war is now shifting south to the Read More …
Brian M Downing The Ukraine war may be accelerating Saudi Arabia’s detachment from the United States and realignment with Russia and China. The process, long followed here, has been underway for years through oil contracts, output quotas, arms sales, and diplomacy. The Russo-Ukraine war is making the process clear and Read More …
Brian M Downing Wars bring sweeping changes, most unforeseen. The First World War brought down three proud, venerable dynasties and began Europe’s decline and America’s ascendance, a process completed by the Second World War. The Russo-Ukraine war, the largest Europe has seen since 1945, will determine the future of Europe Read More …
Brian M Downing Eleven weeks ago Russia withdrew from Kyiv and focused on the east. Attempts at decisive breakthroughs failed and a slow, grinding war of attrition has emerged. Territorial changes have been small, casualties high. Neither side gives detailed casualty figures. The Russian army has shown marked improvement since Read More …
Brian M Downing The Black Sea Russia’s most successful efforts have been along the Black Sea and Crimean peninsula. Drives from bases in Crimea and supported by the navy drove swiftly west to Kherson and east to Melitopol. The navy famously took Snake Island on the first day. The small Read More …
Brian M Downing Russia’s Donbas offensive has failed to encircle Ukrainian units or make significant penetration. It’s made only limited gains around Lyman, Donetsk, and Severodonetsk. Ukrainian casualties, though, have been high – about a hundred dead per day on average and twice that amid exceptionally sharp fighting. Russian casualties Read More …