Brian M Downing
Mohammed bin Salman can’t be happy. A new administration in Washington is pausing support for his war in Yemen. Presidents Obama and Trump supported him, with varying levels of enthusiasm, but those days are over. The Biden administration is signaling a stronger stance on human rights. That will be a cornerstone of his effort to repair relations with allies and stand up to Russia and China.
Biden is also planning to re-enter the JCPOA and pursue better relations with Iran. MBS wanted to get the US to attack Iran, which would have weakened his sectarian and geopolitical enemy and endowed him as lord of the Gulf and much of the Sunni world as well. That’s slipped away.
No, the prince isn’t happy. His ambitions are on hold and his position at home is unclear. The looming setback in Yemen is the latest in a string of failures. The kingdom supported Syrian rebels in the hope of overthrowing the pro-Iran Assad government, but they failed. Turkey and Iran have thwarted the Sunni effort to control Libya. And now Biden is in the White House. What will the prince do?
A negotiated settlement
The new administration in Washington is restoring emphasis on human rights and diplomacy. Yemen is a starting point. Biden is pausing arms sales to the kingdom and dropping the Houthis from the terror list. Washington will search for a diplomatic solution in coming months.
One solution is a ceasefire and elections to a national parliament. This has been tried. Elections simply institutionalize north-south differences. Paralysis follows, then war. A second solution is to partition the country or at least devolve power to the two regions. The UAE, Saudi Arabia’s ally in the Yemen conflict, is amenable to this.
MBS might see diplomacy and partition as inevitable and join in to take credit for diplomatic acumen. More likely, however, he will not cotton to anything that establishes a Shia, pro-Iran, militarily impressive country on his southern border, adjacent to a Shia region in his own domain and a few hundred miles from Mecca.
A diplomatic solution would be a triumph for Biden, another failure for MBS.
Trouble at home?
Failure in war has historically undermined regimes and strengthened the opposition. By the close of World War One, three centuries-old monarchies had fallen. However, all three had suffered enormous casualties in the war and the House of Saud is adroit at avoiding them and convincing others to take them.
MBS’s failures are strengthening domestic discontent. He has antagonized large parts of the royal family by leapfrogging over other princes in the line of succession, detaining, imprisoning, and torturing some of them. His alignment with Israel against Iran conflicts with longstanding hostility toward the Jewish state. He has disbursed huge amounts of money to foreign countries, armies, schools, and mosques, which has reaped less than anticipated. Better the money be spent at home, many will say.
The prince could ease discontent by moderating his rule and enacting substantive, forward-looking reforms – far more than allowing women to drive. This is unlikely. MBS is devoted to autocracy, personal power, and a quest for empire. It’s more likely that he will clamp down all the more on subjects and relatives. He has the resources and foreign countries are eager to sell him the latest surveillance gear. The darker techniques he already knows.
Continue the war
A privileged scion with the appearance of military knowledge and an obsequious officer corps might feel he can still turn the tide in Yemen. The Houthis are worn-down and ill-supplied. A concerted drive on Sanaa might, in his estimation, cause collapse. The Houthis are more experienced and would enjoy the advantage of defensive positions and a supportive population.
He and his generals, however, cannot have forgotten the licking their troops took two years ago when a small Houthi force mauled two Saudi brigades. The Houthis hail the clash as “Operation Victory from God”. The Saudis don’t talk about the battle much, except to downplay it.
The crown prince might try again to recruit Egyptian and Pakistani troops for the drive. They’ve rebuffed him in the past and the situation today is hardly more encouraging. A spearhead force comprising Western mercenaries is a possibility, but forming such a unit takes time. In any case, their success might be a serious embarrassment. It would underscore the kingdom’s shortcomings and reliance on the West.
© 2021 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to Susan Ganosellis.