Brian M Downing
Long game
Mohammed bin Salman may opt to slow down the Yemen war, use his and allies’ clout in Washington, and hope to change Biden’s position – or wait him out and hope for a more sympathetic president in a few years. No war, no peace.
Support to Sunni Yemen can continue, the fighting will go on, but without present levels of Western arms and intelligence. Saudi air support will dwindle too but that had little military effect; it killed many civilians and brought sympathy to the Houthis. The Saudis may participate in peace talks, though hardly in good faith. As noted earlier, MBS does not want a pro-Iran, militarily-superior Shia state on his border. The risk here, however, is that in the absence of offensive drives, a de facto line of partition can fall into place. We’re halfway there already.
Saudi Arabia and aligned states will continue support to separatists and terrorists inside Iran. This will make Iran less amenable to talks on Yemen and on easing hostilities with the US. The Saudis et al have considerable influence in Washington to support they long game. They may also look to the Democrats thin majorities in Congress and see exploitable vulnerabilities in the 2022 elections.
Lobbies and partisan pols will create imaginative defenses of the kingdom as they chip away at Biden’s support in coming years. The narrative writes itself: a forward-looking, reformist prince standing alone against Houthi terrorism and Iranian expansionism.
Playing the Russia-China card
The Saudis can express their displeasure with the US by moving closer to its strongest rivals. Riyadh has already shown its hand in recent years by purchasing big-ticket weapons from Russia and China. This will irk Congress and US defense contractors, and hurt well-paid workers in many districts.
The view here is that MBS and other the Gulf monarchs are likely to shift toward Russia and China in coming years. The princes already work with Russia on oil quotas and sell large quantities of crude to China. Affinities for authoritarian rule are clear. Russia and China will assist in something the US will not – crushing popular uprisings in years to come. They’re good at it.
But neither Russia nor China will help MBS with his Yemen policy or conflict with Iran. Their ambitions are to replace the US as Gulf hegemon, not to take part in sectarian squabbles and dynastic schemes. For the time being, the US is willing to do both.
© 2021 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to Susan Ganosellis.