How we got into Syria (and where we’re going)

Brian M Downing  The Pentagon admits to about 2,000 troops in Syria, though it declines to give a precise number. The GIs range along the northern border with Turkey and extend down the eastern bank of the Euphrates. They serve as trainers, advisors, air support spotters, logistics personnel, artillery support, Read More …

Will the young prince lead his troops into Syria?

Brian M Downing  The US and Britain, along with Kurdish-Arab SDF allies, have established themselves in eastern Syria. Washington and Riyadh are discussing a contingent from Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states. President Trump recently said the US would soon be out of Syria. The statement has been dialed back Read More …

Is Putin increasing the stakes in Syria?

Brian M Downing  Russian leader Vladimir Putin recently deployed more fighter aircraft to the Latakia airbase in western Syria –  two SU-57s. The move comes close on the heels of two setbacks  – Israel’s punishing strike on Syria’s Russian-made and much ballyhooed air defense system, and the US-SDF blunting of Read More …

Opportunity and entrenchment in the Syrian-Turkish clash

Brian M Downing  Turkey sat on the sidelines during most of the Syrian Civil War. President Erdogan looked on as ISIL mauled the Kurds of Syria, whom he deems supportive of Kurdish militants in his country’s southeast. To his dismay but to the world’s delight, the Kurds, with American help, Read More …

Russia suffers defeat in eastern Syria

Brian M Downing Vladimir Putin has had a bad week. His vaunted air defense system in Syria brought down an Israeli F-16, but the IDF responded with retaliatory strikes that crippled the system, destroying perhaps one-third of it. Beyond the military significance of this, Russian military hardware isn’t looking attractive Read More …

Ahmed S Hashim, Insurgency and Counter-Insurgency in Iraq

A review of Ahmed S Hashim, Insurgency and Counter-Insurgency in Iraq  by Brian M Downing Analyzing an ongoing war is dicey.  Most historians gladly and often wisely leave it to pundits and think-tank analysts until the years have made it less dangerous to their careers.  Amid the grinding war in Iraq, Read More …

The emerging struggle for the Persian Gulf, Part II

Brian M Downing (Part I) Common ground Political and economic forces will push the Gulf states closer to Russia and China. The Gulf states and Russia want to keep oil prices as high as possible, and indeed they have already collaborated on production limits that have helped raise world prices Read More …

The price of wading back into Iraq 

Brian M Downing  When Barack Obama became president in 2009 he inherited the Bush administration’s wars. The new president had good reason to think he’d be entirely rid of the one in Iraq, After all, the Baghdad government had ordered all US out even before he took office. Obama could Read More …

The khan visits the tsar 

Brian  M Downing  King Salman of Saudi Arabia visited his counterpart in Russia last week – a further sign that events and alignments move quickly in the world. Such a visit was improbable two years ago when Putin sent his military to Syria against Saudi-backed rebels, and unthinkable thirty years Read More …

The Kurds face betrayal once again

Brian M Downing After the end of World War One and the dissolution of the Ottoman Empire, the Kurds expected the statesmen at Versailles to recognize their right to self-determination. An independent Kurdish state appeared within reach. The British, French, Turks, and Persians had other ideas. Partition and repression followed. Read More …