The Gulf powers face a democratic Iraq

Brian M Downing  The US-led campaign in Iraq booted out Saddam Hussein, disbanded his army, and set up elections. A frail democracy has been in place for over a decade. The position here is that Iraq is not fertile soil for democratic government. Sectarianism, factionalism, tribalism, and corruption pose serious Read More …

The rise of Sadr and the decline of Iran?

Brian M Downing  The last few months have seen numerous demonstrations in Iraq – some large and violent. They protest government incompetence and corruption but often mask the designs of the mercurial Muqtada al Sadr. Scion of a family of revered Shia clerics who opposed Saddam Hussein, Sadr has at Read More …

Unrest in Jordan and concerns of another Arab Spring

Brian M Downing Jordan has been in the background while much of the Middle East has burned and raged. It experienced no upheaval as in Egypt, Libya, and Syria. ISIL’s presence isn’t strong in Jordan, though it has pockets of support. The Jordanian military is playing a role in fighting Read More …

The Russian S-400 system heads for Qatar

Brian M Downing  Arms sales are increasingly important in world affairs – to buyers and sellers alike. The US isn’t in lockstep with the Gulf monarchies against Iran because of oil imports. American imports from the Middle East have dwindled over the last two decades or so. The tilt is Read More …

Outcome scenarios in the sectarian wars: protracted stalemate, part two

Brian M Downing  Sectarian conflict, chiefly between Saudi Arabia and Iran, has been underway for decades. Based at least as much on religious hatred as national security, it reached intense levels with the Iran-Iraq War of the 80s and took hundreds of thousands of lives. Afterward, animosities lessened but picked up Read More …

Outcome scenarios in the sectarian wars: protracted stalemate, part one

Brian M Downing  Sectarian conflict, chiefly between Saudi Arabia and Iran, has been underway for decades. Based at least as much on religious hatred as on national security, it reached intense levels with the Iran-Iraq War of the 80s which took hundreds of thousands of lives. Afterward, animosities lessened but Read More …

Jerusalem, Gaza, and stability in the anti-Iran Entente

Brian M Downing  This week the US opened its embassy in Jerusalem, moving it from Tel Aviv as President Trump promised. The relocation signaled the president’s disinterest in a two-state solution and support for the Israeli Right’s assimilation of the West Bank. Along the Gaza Strip in the west, Palestinian Read More …

Outcome scenarios in the sectarian wars: Saudi Arabia triumphant 

Brian M Downing  The US is walking away from the JCPOA and sectarian conflict is poised to spread, intensify, and probably go on for years. The US and Israel are foursquare on the Sunni side. Iran and Saudi Arabia have been at odds since Khomeini came to power in 1979 Read More …