Images of the Saudi future I – liberalizing monarchy

Brian M Downing  The US has entered into an alliance with Saudi Arabia, Israel, and several Gulf states to weaken Iran. The project is based less on American security interests than on those of the partners. It aims to weaken Iran by imposing sanctions, supporting insurgencies, and encouraging internal opposition Read More …

Outcomes of the Iran conflict, Part II

Brian M Downing  Regime strengthened The entente’s efforts to weaken the Iranian government may have the reverse effect, especially if more aggressive actions are taken. The importance attached to urban middle classes is overestimated owing to their parallels to westernized people and an attendant faith that they must represent Iran’s Read More …

Risks of US involvement in the sectarian war – part one 

Brian M Downing  A Sunni-Shia conflict has been underway at least since Khomeini took power in Iran in early 1979. Fearing Shia uprisings and Sunni ones as well, Saudi Arabia and its allies formed a league to oppose Iran. They supported Iraq against Iran in the 80s and have aligned Read More …

Outcome scenarios in the sectarian wars: protracted stalemate, part two

Brian M Downing  Sectarian conflict, chiefly between Saudi Arabia and Iran, has been underway for decades. Based at least as much on religious hatred as national security, it reached intense levels with the Iran-Iraq War of the 80s and took hundreds of thousands of lives. Afterward, animosities lessened but picked up Read More …

Modern War and the Decline of the Old Regime, 1763-1856 by Brian M Downing

Modern War and the Decline of the Old Regime, 1763-1856 © 2001 Brian M. Downing The basis of democratization is everywhere purely military in character. . . .  Military discipline meant the triumph of democracy because the community wished and was compelled to secure the cooperation of the non-aristocratic masses Read More …

War and change in Saudi Arabia

Brian M Downing  Wars bring formidable changes to countries, even if they are fortunate enough not to have fighting on their own soil. The US was transformed by the Second World War and Vietnam, both politically and culturally, in the course of only a few years. The Middle East was Read More …

Islamist militancy in Mali and the Maghreb

Brian M Downing A rebellion in Mali that might have otherwise excited little interest commanded international attention when word came of its hardline Islamist nature and, more importantly, its ties to al Qaeda in the Maghreb (AQIM). In recent days, French, Malian, and other African troops have launched attacks into Read More …