Brian M Downing and the world at war. Timely, thoughtful, and nonpartisan analysis of military matters. @BrianMDowning1.
Brian M Downing The US has retaliated against IRGC personnel and proxies after three GI deaths on a small remote base near the Jordanian-Syrian border. Retaliatory trikes have gone on for several days now and aim at getting Iran to back down. There’s little sign of it. Where is this Read More …
Brian M Downing The IRGC has several ways to increase its power at the expense of the mullahs. Again, the scenario suggested here isn’t a coup. The mullahs have far too much popular and institutional power for that. But the generals can establish a formidable power bloc comprising military, economic, Read More …
Brian M Downing The mullahs from the IRGC perspective There are few young ayatollahs (or popes for that matter). The accreditation process is long and arduous and unrelated to governing a large country in parlous times. In terms of age, they are like the geriatric politburo of the Soviet Read More …
Brian M Downing The health of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Islamic Republic’s Supreme Leader, has been in question for years. Wounded in an MEK bombing, treated for cancer, the 81-year-old cleric was recently said to be gravely ill and choosing a successor. But death isn’t at hand, though piety and Read More …
Brian M Downing Tensions, sometimes very ominous ones, come and go in the Middle East. Since the killing of General Soleimani and Iran’s subsequent missile strike in Iraq, tensions have eased, at least for now. Iran’s response was fiery missile launches into dark skies and claims of high American casualties. Read More …
Brian M Downing An American drone strike has killed Qassem Soleimani, the renowned head of the IRGC’s foreign operations. Over the last decade he patched together dozens of Syrian, Iraqi, and international-Shia militias. They fought US troops in the years after the 2003 invasion, bolstered faltering Syrian forces, fought alongside, Read More …
Brian M Downing [T]here is no such thing as an independent terrorist group and there never has been. [A]ll terrorism is the product of one or another regional powers meddling in the affairs of its neighbors. – former Iranian president Bani Sadr. Iran’s southeastern region is home to a restive Baloch population. The Read More …
Brian M Downing Gunmen attacked an IRGC parade in Iran’s Khuzestan province two weeks ago, killing 29 people and injuring twice that. An Arab separatist group has claimed responsibility, and so has ISIL. Tehran immediately blamed Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, and foreign backers. Earlier this week, the IRGC replied with Read More …
Reviewed by Brian M Downing The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has been central to Iran’s domestic and foreign security since the war with Iraq in the 80s. Afterward it expanded into many parts of the state, economy, and society. Recently it’s been active in Iraq and Syria. Today the Read More …
Brian M Downing Regime strengthened The entente’s efforts to weaken the Iranian government may have the reverse effect, especially if more aggressive actions are taken. The importance attached to urban middle classes is overestimated owing to their parallels to westernized people and an attendant faith that they must represent Iran’s Read More …