Brian M Downing and the world at war. Timely, thoughtful, and nonpartisan analysis of military matters. @BrianMDowning1.
Brian M Downing Late last week President Trump ordered airstrikes on Iran in retaliation for attacks on a US drone and several foreign oil tankers. The reprisals were called off not long before launch. The president claims he canceled them because generals apprised him of sobering casualty estimates late in Read More …
Brian M Downing The Khashoggi affair has caused a rift between the US and Saudi Arabia. It’s also shown that the partnership is not based on shared heritage and values, but on sales of oil and weapons. President Trump cautioned that the affair might cost the US many billions in Read More …
Brian M Downing Saudi Arabia and Iran have been engaged in conflict since the Khomeini Revolution of 1979 and the Iran-Iraq War that began the following year. Washington may think it can limit involvement to supplying arms and intelligence with an occasional skirmish and airstrike. But the US risks deeper involvement and Read More …
Brian M Downing A Sunni-Shia conflict has been underway at least since Khomeini took power in Iran in early 1979. Fearing Shia uprisings and Sunni ones as well, Saudi Arabia and its allies formed a league to oppose Iran. They supported Iraq against Iran in the 80s and have aligned Read More …
Brian M Downing Yemen is in the middle of its third civil war between north and south. None of the conflicts has been sectarian to most Yemenis, even though the north is Shia and the south Sunni. The disputes have been regional in nature – the result of the north Read More …
Brian M Downing Sectarian conflict, chiefly between Saudi Arabia and Iran, has been underway for decades. Based at least as much on religious hatred as on national security, it reached intense levels with the Iran-Iraq War of the 80s which took hundreds of thousands of lives. Afterward, animosities lessened but Read More …
Brian M Downing Candidate Trump made it clear that he opposed the Iran nuclear treaty, or JCPOA, and would be much firmer with Iran than President Obama had been or a President Hillary Clinton would be. President Trump has solidified ties with the Israeli Right and Sunni princes, making tough Read More …
Brian M Downing The US and Britain, along with Kurdish-Arab SDF allies, have established themselves in eastern Syria. Washington and Riyadh are discussing a contingent from Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states. President Trump recently said the US would soon be out of Syria. The statement has been dialed back Read More …
Brian M Downing Warrior-king Abdul Aziz ibn Saud gathered tribal forces on the Arabian Peninsula after World War One and established a personal Kingdom in 1932. Since his death in 1953, Saudi Arabia has been ruled by his sons – actually by a clique within his numerous offspring. In recent Read More …
Brian M Downing (Part I) Common ground Political and economic forces will push the Gulf states closer to Russia and China. The Gulf states and Russia want to keep oil prices as high as possible, and indeed they have already collaborated on production limits that have helped raise world prices Read More …