Brian M Downing and the world at war. Timely, thoughtful, and nonpartisan analysis of military matters. @BrianMDowning1.
Brian M Downing The US has officially recognized Israel’s annexation of the Golan Heights, the narrow strip of elevated land overlooking western Syria. Israel took control of it in the Six-Day War of 1967 and battled for it again six years later in the Yom Kippur War. The US has Read More …
Brian M Downing This series has considered a few scenarios of Saudi Arabia in 20 years or so: a liberalizing monarchy, internal turmoil and disintegration, a regional economic and military power, and conflict with Israel. A strong kingdom could try to expand its power in the Middle East and avenge Read More …
Brian M Downing Candidate Trump promised to break from the JCPOA and press hard on Iran. He asserted that Tehran was expanding its power in the Middle East, supporting terrorism, and continuing to develop nuclear weapons. President Trump has kept his word in this regard. The US has left the Read More …
Brian M Downing In coming decades Saudi Arabia could become more powerful than today. It already has considerable oil wealth and it may become an industrial power too as the crown prince diversifies his economy. Furthermore, he could transform the army into an effective professional forces which in conjunction with Read More …
Brian M Downing Some wars ignite with little warning. The First Gulf War is a case in point. Others are seen from far off. Britain had long allied with Prussia/Germany but became wary as Germany became an industrial and naval power. Alliances shifted, war came. After that war, many diplomats Read More …
Brian M Downing The war in Syria has eased considerably. Rebel positions along the periphery remain but Assad controls most of the country. Two interesting events have taken place in recent weeks. Delegates from Sunni Gulf states, key backers of Syrian rebel groups, have visited Damascus, and today President Trump Read More …
Brian M Downing The US, Saudi Arabia, and Israel are determined to bring change to Iran. They claim it’s violating the JCPOA, supporting terrorism, and aggressively expanding its influence in the region. The US has reimposed sanctions. More will follow in the autumn. This three-power entente wants to soften demand Read More …
Brian M Downing The Syrian civil war appears to be moving into a final chapter, though the region’s conflicts are prone to sudden addendums. Government forces, with the aid of Russian airpower and Iranian-trained militias, are moving on Idlib in the north and Deraa in the south. The latter campaign Read More …
Brian M Downing Relations between the US and Russia have declined badly since Putin’s invasion of the Crimea and eastern Ukraine. The Trump administration is determined to bring rapprochement. The contours of an arrangement seem to be reducing sanctions on Russia in exchange for its cooperation against Iran – a Read More …
Brian M Downing Sectarian conflict, chiefly between Saudi Arabia and Iran, has been underway for decades. Based at least as much on religious hatred as on national security, it reached intense levels with the Iran-Iraq War of the 80s which took hundreds of thousands of lives. Afterward, animosities lessened but Read More …