Brian M Downing and the world at war. Timely, thoughtful, and nonpartisan analysis of military matters. @BrianMDowning1.
Brian M Downing As more districts fall concerns mount as to what will become of the country. One of more alarming claims, one used in calls for the US to reconsider withdrawal, is that it will become a sanctuary for al Qaeda and ISIL. The view here has long been Read More …
Brian M Downing Twenty years ago, only specialists had heard of al Qaeda. Since then, it has grown in numbers, inspired rivals, aligned with separatists, and spread into Nigeria, the Maghreb, Sinai, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, East Africa, South Asia, Central Asia, and Southeast Asia. Both AQ and ISIL have havens Read More …
Brian M Downing While attention has focused on civil war and jihadism in the Middle East, Islamist militants have been striking in Mali, Chad, Burkina Faso, and Niger. The attacks are becoming bolder and more lethal. Government forces are not up to the task of taking them on. Indeed, outposts Read More …
Brian M Downing Overt Iranian intervention? Tehran is deeply concerned that events in Iraq will lead to Saudi and American gains along its western border, parts of which have low-level insurgencies. Its only major military ally in the region, Syria, has come out on top in the civil war but Read More …
Brian M Downing Abu Bakr al Baghdadi hoped to conquer and lead a new Islamist empire. His armies once alarmed capitals in and out of the region. However, western-backed forces ground them down and late last week American special forces killed him. What does his death mean for the future Read More …
Brian M Downing In recent years American policies in the Middle East have met with mixed success. Key allies are reasonably secure and arms sales are on the rise. However, intermittent efforts to liberalize the region have brought more chaos than democracy, in large part because most Arab rulers oppose Read More …
Brian M Downing Diplomatic history knows of the Zinoviev letter and Zimmerman telegram. One day President Trump’s tweets may be recorded. Over the weekend he scuttled impending talks with the Taliban, apparently because of a recent terrorist attack. No one can be sure that in a day or two he Read More …
Brian M Downing The American phase of Afghanistan’s wars began after al Qaeda’s 9/11 attacks. Since then, however, the group’s significance declined. The war became a Taliban-based insurgency, al Qaeda lost many leaders and fighters, and ISIL seized territory while al Qaeda was in hiding. Today, after 17 years of Read More …
Brian M Downing SDF troops supported by American, British, and French advisors have greatly reduced ISIL territory in Syria. Only a small portion of land near Deir Azour remains. ISIL’s positions in Iraq are negligible too. Most ISIL troops fight to the end, though recently, near Deir Azour, several dozen Read More …
Brian M Downing President Trump issued a warning to Pakistan last January and this week he cut $300 million in military aid to our putative ally. Other forms of aid are continuing, however. The reason for the cuts is Islamabad’s support for the Taliban, which has been gaining ground in Read More …