Brian M Downing and the world at war. Timely, thoughtful, and nonpartisan analysis of military matters. @BrianMDowning1.
Brian M Downing The US has retaliated against IRGC personnel and proxies after three GI deaths on a small remote base near the Jordanian-Syrian border. Retaliatory trikes have gone on for several days now and aim at getting Iran to back down. There’s little sign of it. Where is this Read More …
Brian M Downing Presidents inherit foreign policy burdens from their predecessors. LBJ was handed a deteriorating situation in Southeast Asia. Nixon got an unwinnable war and a public that wanted out of it. Bush the Younger bequeathed wars in Afghanistan and Iraq to Obama and Trump. Both managed to muddle Read More …
Brian M Downing Justifications The second response to the 9/11 attacks was the invasion of Iraq in 2003. Several justifications were advanced. First, Saddam Hussein was said to be developing WMDs which could be used against American cities. However, the intelligence assessment did not claim high certainty and doubts abounded. Read More …
Brian M Downing Iraq gravely worsened Sunni-Shia animosities by invading Iran in 1980. Though unsupportive at first, the Sunni states funneled support to Saddam Hussein to stave off defeat and a triumphant Shia republic. The war lasted eight years and killed hundreds of thousands. Today, Iraq is trying to use Read More …
Brian M Downing Rapprochement or revenge? Iran wants sanctions relief but there’s presently a good deal of diplomatic folderol in the way. Iran wants the sanctions lifted immediately and will return to JCPOA enrichment levels later. The US wants to hold off lifting sanctions until Iran complies with the JCPOA. Read More …
Brian M Downing The US is pulling out of three bases in Iraq, though most will be repositioned on other bases. This comes after an upswing in rocket fire from Iranian-backed militias. US reprisals have had no deterrent effect. The move might be a preliminary stage of a withdrawal intended Read More …
Brian M Downing When the Baghdad government ordered US troops out late in Bush the Younger’s second administration, it seemed we were rid of a bad situation. Shortly thereafter, however, AQ began to reconstitute in Sunni regions and Baghdad asked for US counterterrorism help. It was granted. In 2014 ISIL Read More …
Brian M Downing The US left Iraq in 2011 but returned at the invitation of the government. Initially, and relatively secretly, the US sent counterterrorism teams when al Qaeda resurfaced shortly after the US left. A fuller deployment came when ISIL overran the north. ISIL has lost almost all its Read More …
Brian M Downing The situation in Iraq is worsening. The government is unpopular and struggling to form a coalition amid public unrest from militias, young people, and a burgeoning women’s movement. And the US and Iran are staring each other down there, at least when the issue comes to the Read More …
Brian M Downing State collapse Many longstanding democracies, including the US, Britain, France, and Israel face worrisome polarization and gridlock. A young, frail democracy is in far worse shape. The government has been a state of disarray for several months. Recent events are making coalition-building all the more difficult. Angry Read More …